States tell Albanese government that NDIS changes could mean people with disabilities are shifted into hospitals
States and territories warn the NDIS overhaul could push disabled people into hospitals or leave them without support if alternative services are not ready.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
State and territory ministers say the Albanese government’s NDIS rewrite could shift more than 240,000 people out of the scheme without proper replacement supports. They warn that could create unmet need, cost-shifting to state systems, and unsafe placements.
Australia is changing a big support program for disabled people. State leaders say if the changes happen too fast, some people could lose help and end up in hospitals or places that do not fit their needs, like moving a team without building the new locker room first.
Analysis
What the states are warning about
State and territory disability ministers have told the Albanese government they cannot provide “like-for-like services” to people who are moved off the NDIS. Their joint submission says the planned overhaul risks leaving people with disability in hospitals or other settings that do not suit their needs.
The federal plan aims to slow the growth of the scheme, which costs about $50bn a year. According to the article, the government wants to start by cutting budgets and then tighten who can access the NDIS from 2028. Department modelling says more than 240,000 participants could be shifted off the scheme in the four years after the new eligibility rules begin.
Why states are objecting
The ministers say they were not meaningfully consulted. They also object to what they describe as unilateral powers for the federal NDIS minister, which they say points to a broader move away from shared governance.
Their main concern is that there are not yet clearly defined alternative supports. Without those, the submission says there is a real risk of unmet need and cost-shifting to state systems such as health, education and justice. Those systems, the states argue, are not built for the extra demand and cannot match NDIS-style services.
The submission warns that without a careful, coordinated approach, people could end up in hospitals or other inappropriate settings, or have no services at all.
Political context
The Senate inquiry is examining the bill and is due to report next week. Federal health minister Mark Butler rejected calls to revisit the scale of the cuts on Thursday, saying the government’s plan was designed to get the NDIS “back on track” and keep disabled people at its centre. He also wants the legislation passed before parliament rises for the winter break on 2 July.
Key points
- State and territory ministers say they were not meaningfully consulted on the NDIS overhaul.
- They warn that more than 240,000 people could be shifted off the scheme after new rules begin in 2028.
- The states say they cannot deliver like-for-like services for people exited from the NDIS.
- Officials fear unmet need and cost-shifting to health, education and justice systems.
- Federal minister Mark Butler says the plan is meant to secure the NDIS for the long term.
If the government and states agree on replacement supports, the NDIS could become more financially stable while still protecting people with disability. A coordinated rollout could also reduce confusion and make the wider support system clearer.
If the overhaul moves ahead without enough alternatives, people could lose access to services or be pushed into inappropriate settings. The warning also suggests pressure could spill into hospitals and other state systems that are not prepared for the extra demand.
