Sudan: After a major setback against the army, the paramilitary chief announces a change in strategy
Mohamed Hamdane Dogolo, head of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), announced a strategic shift after a significant defeat against the army, losing control of key areas and a vital supply route.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Following a major military setback in North Kordofan, where the RSF lost a strategic road and several commanders, Hemedti declared an urgent change in tactics, urging his troops to fight without rest and granting field commanders autonomy to launch offensives faster.
Imagine two big teams fighting in Sudan. One team, led by Hemedti, just lost a very important road and some of its leaders were caught. Now, Hemedti is telling his team they must fight super hard and fast, giving their captains permission to attack without asking him first, because it's a do-or-die situation for them.
Analysis
The Strategic Reversal in Kordofan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdane Dogolo, known as Hemedti, have suffered a significant military defeat in North Kordofan. This setback saw the RSF lose control of several key localities and, crucially, a major strategic road that connects the capital, Khartoum, to the central city of El-Obeid. This route had been under RSF control for over a year, serving as a vital artery for their operations.
The loss of this strategic axis has profound implications for the paramilitary group. It not only provided a direct path to Khartoum but also enabled the RSF to cut off supply lines to the Sudanese army in El-Obeid and control lucrative gold mines in the region. The defeat means the RSF has lost a critical supply line, and several of its commanders were reportedly captured by the army, further weakening their operational capacity and morale.
Hemedti's Desperate Call to Arms
In response to this major reversal, General Hemedti issued a stark message to his troops, broadcast via social media. He declared, "From today, there is no rest. Either we survive, or we cease to exist," emphasizing the critical nature of their current predicament. He further added, "There is no room for complacency and retreat," signaling a desperate push for renewed aggression and commitment from his fighters.
Accompanying this urgent rhetoric, Hemedti announced a significant change in military strategy. He called upon RSF field commanders to adopt new tactics and granted them full autonomy to launch offensives without needing to await orders from higher command. This decentralization of authority is intended to enable faster decision-making and more agile responses on the battlefield, reflecting a move towards more aggressive and independent operations.
Escalating Conflict and Humanitarian Catastrophe
An observer noted that Hemedti's declaration and the shift to decentralized command do not bode well for the conflict, especially given the RSF's history of atrocities. Past actions, such as the capture of El-Fasher in October 2025, were described by a UN investigation as bearing "the characteristics of a genocide." The concern is that granting more autonomy to field commanders could lead to an increase in such human rights violations as they operate with less oversight.
The war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF, has already exacted a devastating toll. Estimates suggest that 200,000 people have been killed, and over 11 million Sudanese have been displaced, making it the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The United Nations estimates that 33 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian aid. This strategic shift by the RSF, following a major defeat, could intensify the fighting, further exacerbating the already catastrophic humanitarian situation and prolonging the suffering of the Sudanese population.
Key points
- RSF leader Hemedti announced a strategic change after a major defeat against the Sudanese army.
- The RSF lost control of several localities and a crucial road linking Khartoum to El-Obeid, along with captured commanders.
- Hemedti urged his troops to fight relentlessly, stating, "Either we survive, or we cease to exist."
- Field commanders have been granted autonomy to launch offensives without waiting for orders, aiming for faster action.
- The war, ongoing since April 2023, has resulted in 200,000 deaths and displaced over 11 million people, creating a severe humanitarian crisis.
The shift to decentralized command, coupled with Hemedti's desperate rhetoric, could lead to an escalation of violence and an increase in atrocities, further worsening the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The conflict may become more protracted and brutal, with devastating consequences for the civilian population.
