Sudan conflict: Two-year curfew lifted in Khartoum
Sudan's military-led government has lifted a curfew and state of emergency in Khartoum, imposed over two years ago. This move aims to restore normalcy, though clashes persist and the conflict risks regional destabilization.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite
After more than two years, Sudan's capital Khartoum has seen its curfew and state of emergency lifted by the military-led government. This decision, made 18 months after the army regained control from the RSF, signals an attempt to revive normal life in the war-torn city. However, ongoing clashes in other regions and evidence of the conflict spilling into neighboring Chad highlight th…
Imagine your city had a big fight, and everyone had to stay inside after dark for two years. Now, the grown-ups in charge say it's okay to go out again at night. This is supposed to help things feel normal, but many homes are still broken, and the lights keep going out because of the fighting. It's a small step, but the big fight is still happening.
Analysis
Khartoum's Reopening
The lifting of the two-year curfew and state of emergency in Khartoum represents a symbolic, albeit tentative, step towards restoring normalcy in Sudan's capital. This decision comes 18 months after the Sudanese army reasserted control over the city from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with whom they have been engaged in a brutal civil war for nearly four years. The authorities aim to encourage the return of businesses and embassies, and the reopening of the main airport for some flights is a tangible sign of this effort. However, the reality on the ground for returning residents is starkly different from a return to pre-war life. Many face widespread destruction, looted buildings, and persistent power outages, exacerbated by alleged RSF drone attacks on infrastructure and a lack of government funds for repairs. The Khartoum state government has pointed to looting of essential components like copper wires and fuel, alongside direct attacks, as reasons for the severe power disruptions, a claim the RSF has dismissed as propaganda.
Regional Spillover
Beyond the capital, the conflict's tendrils are increasingly reaching into neighboring countries, raising serious concerns about regional stability. Chad has accused Sudan's military of conducting an air strike deep within its territory, hitting a military convoy and prompting Chad to place its forces on high alert. Sudan has denied the accusation, expressing surprise at being blamed without an investigation and asserting its commitment to defending its sovereignty while respecting its neighbors. This incident escalates tensions, particularly as Sudan accuses Chad of facilitating the passage of RSF military supplies, allegations both Chad and the UAE deny, despite corroborating reports from UN experts and international media. The US, through its Senior Adviser for Arab and African Affairs, Massad Boulos, has voiced "deep concern" over the risk of Sudan's war destabilizing the region, urging an immediate humanitarian truce and condemning the air strikes inside Chad.
International Pressure and Stalemate
The international community is grappling with the escalating conflict and its wider implications. The US envoy has proposed a UN Security Council resolution to extend a weapons embargo on Darfur to the entire country and ban attack drones, a move strongly opposed by Sudan's government and army. They argue it unfairly equates the national military with a paramilitary force and hinders their ability to combat the insurgency. This proposal highlights the diplomatic deadlock, with the Sudanese military refusing to engage in peace talks unless the RSF disarms and withdraws from occupied territories. The US envoy has also called for an end to external financial and military support to the warring parties, emphasizing that there is "no military solution" and no justification for expanding the violence beyond Sudan's borders. The conflict's continuation, coupled with the lack of a clear path to resolution, poses a significant threat to regional peace and the lives of millions of Sudanese civilians.
Key points
- Sudan's military-led government has lifted a two-year curfew and state of emergency in the capital, Khartoum.
- The move aims to restore normal life, reopen businesses, and encourage the return of embassies and flights.
- Residents returning to Khartoum face significant damage, looting, and constant power blackouts.
- The conflict is showing signs of spilling across Sudan's borders, with Chad accusing Sudan of an air strike.
- International efforts to broker peace face challenges, with the Sudanese military demanding RSF disarmament before talks.
The lifting of the curfew could encourage more people and businesses to return to Khartoum, fostering economic recovery and a sense of normalcy. It might also signal a willingness from the government to prioritize civilian life and begin rebuilding efforts, potentially creating a more stable environment for future peace negotiations.
Despite the curfew being lifted, the underlying conflict remains unresolved, with ongoing clashes and the risk of regional escalation. The severe damage to infrastructure and the lack of funds for repairs mean that daily life for residents will likely remain challenging, and the security situation could deteriorate if RSF infiltration remains a concern.
