Syria is choosing diplomacy with Israel, but can its approach last?

Syria's post-Assad government has embarked on a markedly different foreign policy trajectory, prioritizing diplomatic engagement with Israel over military confrontation. This strategic pivot is largely driven by the urgent need to rebuild a nation devastated by over a decade of conflict, with officials explicitly stating their commitment to avoiding further regional entanglements. The new administration, under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, recognizes that continued hostilities would be too costly, both economically and in terms of human lives, for a country still grappling with immense internal challenges.

Ahmed al-Sharaa

President Ahmed al-Sharaa's administration has fundamentally reoriented Syria's approach to its neighbors, particularly Israel. This marks a stark departure from the previous al-Assad era, which saw Syria as a key component of the Iran-led "axis of resistance." The current government's stated intent is to foster peace and stability, signaling a desire to move beyond the perpetual state of conflict that has defined much of Syria's recent history. This policy is rooted in a pragmatic assessment of Syria's national interest, aiming to secure a period of calm necessary for internal reconstruction.

However, this diplomatic overture has been met with continued aggression from Israel, including military strikes and territorial incursions. Despite these provocations, Damascus has consistently reiterated its commitment to the diplomatic track, viewing it as the least costly option. The Syrian leadership is actively seeking regional and international support, cultivating ties with the US, Turkiye, and Gulf states, to help manage the complex relationship with Israel and potentially impose constraints on Israeli actions.

Rob Geist Pinfold

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer on security studies at King's College London, characterizes Syria's government as "intensely pragmatic." He suggests that Damascus is willing to engage in talks and deals that promote its national interest, even with historical adversaries. This pragmatism is seen as a core element of Syria's strategy to achieve stability by attempting to remove Israel as a "key spoiler" in the post-Assad era.

Pinfold's analysis highlights the domestic pressures influencing Syria's foreign policy, noting a widespread weariness of war among Syrians who desire stability and nation-building. He points out the inherent difficulty of this approach, especially under the "Netanyahu administration," which he suggests is "more willing to live by the sword." This creates a challenging tightrope walk for the Syrian government, balancing its desire for peace with the reality of ongoing Israeli military actions.

Roman Gofman

Recent US-mediated talks in Amman saw Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani meet with Roman Gofman, the head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. These high-level discussions underscore Syria's commitment to direct engagement, even in the face of continued Israeli military operations, such as the attack on a Syrian airbase near Idlib. The focus of these talks, according to Syria's state media, was on establishing "practical mechanisms to halt Israeli attacks, arrests and targeting operations" and "reviving negotiations for a lasting security agreement."

These meetings signify a crucial, albeit fragile, channel for communication between the two nations. While Syria's Foreign Minister al-Shaibani has publicly stated a lack of trust in Israel, the willingness to engage in such sensitive negotiations demonstrates the strategic importance Damascus places on de-escalation and security. The talks represent an attempt to formalize a framework that could eventually lead to a more predictable and less hostile relationship, despite the deep-seated mistrust and historical animosities that persist between the two sides.