The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn’t coming anytime soon
A recent report by Anthropic suggests that AI's impact on employment has fallen short of expectations, with no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Despite its vast progress, big doubts remain on whether AI can do everything a modern economy needs, with some experts questioning its ability to deliver on its promise of vast economic opportunity at a price that humanity is willing to pay.
Imagine you have a robot that can do some tasks, but not all of them. This robot might make some jobs easier, but it might also make some jobs harder. Some people think that robots will take over all jobs and make humans unnecessary, but others think that robots will just make some jobs more interesting and challenging.
Analysis
The AI Jobs Apocalypse: A Myth or Reality?
The recent report by Anthropic has sparked a new conversation about the impact of AI on employment. The report suggests that AI's impact has fallen short of expectations, with no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022. This has opened the public conversation to a less cataclysmic narrative of the evolution of the technology. The emerging new story not only puts more emphasis on the complexity of the relationship between automation and human work across history but also raises doubts about the very feasibility of the threatened AI transformation of the universe.
The O-Ring Argument
One strand of critique of the 'AI-will-do-everything' story might be called the O-ring argument. It comes from the mid-flight explosion of the space shuttle Challenger 73 seconds into its flight on 28 January 1986. A lengthy investigation concluded that the demise of the multibillion-dollar spaceship was caused by a rubber O-ring that didn't work at low temperatures. That cheap O-ring proved critical. The analogy suggests that as long as AI cannot perform every task perfectly, it will increase the value of the remaining tasks. Depending on which the AI takes over, it could increase the value of high-skill workers who are relieved by AI of the low-end part of their job, or increase the opportunity of lower-skilled workers by taking over the more expert tasks.
The Politics of AI
The politics have decidedly soured on the project. Seven in 10 Americans oppose building AI datacenters in their area. While this has to do with their insatiable demand for energy, which drives up local electricity costs, AI's unpopularity is no doubt related to the proposition that it will destroy society as we know it. There are other bumps in the road. Despite its vast progress, big doubts remain on whether AI can do everything a modern economy needs.
Key points
- AI's impact on employment has fallen short of expectations, with no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022.
- Big doubts remain on whether AI can do everything a modern economy needs.
- The politics have soured on the project, with seven in 10 Americans opposing building AI datacenters in their area.
If AI can be designed to work alongside humans, it could increase the value of high-skill workers and create new opportunities for lower-skilled workers. This could lead to a more equitable and prosperous society.
If AI is not designed with human values in mind, it could lead to a loss of jobs and a decrease in economic opportunity for many people. This could exacerbate existing social and economic inequalities.
