There's one simple way to tell whether bitcoin has really bottomed. Right now, it hasn't.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is still below 41.5, a level that has often marked the shift between bullish and bearish regimes.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
CoinDesk says bitcoin’s recent rebound does not yet prove a lasting bottom. Material Indicators argues the weekly RSI must move back above 41.5 before traders can say the broader trend has turned bullish.
Bitcoin bounced a little, but one important scorecard still says the game is not over. It is like a traffic light that has not turned green yet, so traders are waiting before calling it a real comeback.
Analysis
The signal
The article centers on bitcoin’s 14-week relative strength index, or RSI, which Material Indicators says has repeatedly separated bull and bear market regimes across several cycles. The key threshold is 41.5: when BTC stays above it, the broader trend has historically looked bullish; when it stays below it, bearish pressure has tended to dominate.
What the chart is saying now
Bitcoin bounced overnight from recent lows under $60,000 to around $64,000, but the weekly RSI remained below that 41.5 line. Keith Alan of Material Indicators said BTC is still trending down and that bulls still have to prove a real turn. The article notes the weekly RSI was at 34.00 at the time of writing, while the previous weekly reading of 31.89 is the next level to watch.
Why traders care
The piece argues that a price bounce alone is not enough to confirm a bottom. A move above 41.5 on the weekly RSI would be the first meaningful sign that the broader trend is turning bullish and that the bottom may be in. If RSI slips below 31.89, the article says it would suggest more price losses ahead.
Historical context
CoinDesk says the same 41.5 area held during bitcoin bull markets from 2020-21 and from January 2024 through November 2025, while bear-market stretches in late 2018, much of 2022, and recent months stayed below it. That history is the basis for the current caution.
Key points
- Bitcoin briefly bounced from under $60,000 to around $64,000, but the weekly RSI has not confirmed a bottom.
- Material Indicators says 41.5 is the key weekly RSI level that has separated bull and bear regimes across multiple cycles.
- At the time of writing, the weekly RSI was 34.00, still below the bullish threshold.
- A move back above 41.5 would be the first meaningful sign that the broader trend has turned bullish.
- If RSI falls below 31.89, the article says further price losses would be likely.
If the weekly RSI climbs back above 41.5, the article says that would be the first meaningful signal that bitcoin’s broader trend is turning bullish. That would give traders stronger evidence that a durable bottom has formed rather than just a temporary bounce.
If the RSI drops below 31.89, Material Indicators says it would point to more downside ahead. In that case, the recent rebound would look more like a relief rally inside an ongoing downtrend than the start of a new bull phase.
