Trader says XRP price setting ‘biggest bear trap’ after June monthly open
XRP fell to $1.25 after a sell-off and is testing major support, while analysts split between a deeper drop and a potential bear trap.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
XRP’s slide has put it on a multi-year trend line and the 50-month EMA, prompting traders to watch for either a flush toward $1 or a sharp reversal if those levels are reclaimed. Seasonal data also suggests June is often weak for XRP.
XRP is like a ball rolling on the edge of a hill. If it slips through the ledge, it could fall more; if it climbs back over the ledge, the people betting on a fall could get surprised.
Analysis
Macro setup
XRP dropped to about $1.25 after a market-wide sell-off, erasing gains built since early February. The article says price is trading on or slightly below a long-term ascending trend line and near the 50-month EMA, which makes this a key technical zone for the market to watch.
Analyst Egrag Crypto argues that when XRP has opened a month below the 50 EMA during larger drawdowns, the structure has often started to form a bottom. In that view, the current weakness could still turn into a reversal if XRP regains both the 50 EMA and the macro trend line. He says that would make the setup one of the cycle’s biggest bear traps, because bearish positioning could be caught off guard.
Levels traders are watching
The article also lays out downside targets if support fails first. ChartNerd sees room for a move into the $0.70-$0.90 area before a major reversal. Kamile Uray highlights $1.26-$1.30 as an important support band, warning that losing it could open a path toward $0.94-$1.11. Cointelegraph also says a retest of the Feb. 6 low at $1.11 and then the psychological $1 level becomes possible after the $1.27 support breaks.
Seasonality
Seasonal data in the piece leans bearish. Since 2014, XRP has closed June lower in eight of the past 12 years, with average June returns around -5%. The losses were worse in bear-cycle years, which is why traders are treating June as a potentially weak month unless XRP can quickly reclaim lost support.
Key points
- XRP fell to $1.25 after a broader crypto sell-off.
- Analysts say price is testing the 50-month EMA and a long-term ascending trend line.
- Egrag Crypto says reclaiming those levels could create a major bear trap.
- Other traders see downside toward $1.11, $1.00, or even $0.70-$0.90 if support breaks.
- Cointelegraph notes June has historically been a weak month for XRP.
If XRP reclaims the 50-month EMA and its macro trend line, the article says the current weakness could turn into a major bear trap. That would suggest sellers were too early and could set up a sharp rebound.
If XRP cannot hold the $1.26-$1.30 area, the article says traders are watching for a deeper move toward $1.11 and possibly $1.00. Other analysts in the piece also leave open the chance of a drop into the $0.70-$0.90 zone before any major reversal.
