Trump has squeezed China in Cuba, Panama and Venezuela. Is Nicaragua next?
A scholar warns Nicaragua could become the next China-US flashpoint if Beijing revives a canal project there.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Trump’s pressure in Latin America has already affected China’s interests in Cuba, Panama and Venezuela, according to a scholar cited by SCMP. The next possible battleground is Nicaragua, where Beijing may seek infrastructure alternatives to the Panama Canal.
This story says the US and China are like two kids racing to control the best shortcut across a busy playground. If China tries to build a new canal in Nicaragua, the US may push back the way it has in Panama, Cuba and Venezuela.
Analysis
What the article says
SCMP cites a position paper by Zhang Junhua of the European Institute for Asian Studies arguing that Nicaragua could become the next arena of competition between the US and China. The trigger would be any renewed push by Beijing to back a canal project across Nicaragua that would link the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.
Why Nicaragua is being watched
The article says China has recently “intensified” efforts to look for alternatives to the Panama Canal. That matters because the Panama route has already been under heavy pressure from Washington. The piece notes that the canal was previously owned by a subsidiary of Hong Kong firm CK Hutchison, but ownership passed in January to two European shipping companies after months of pressure from Trump.
Wider regional context
The article places Nicaragua alongside other Latin American flashpoints where Beijing has felt pressure. It says the US has pushed China’s interests in Cuba, Panama and Venezuela. In Venezuela, the article says Beijing condemned Washington’s move against Nicolas Maduro, which opened the way for the US to increase its influence over the country’s oil sector. In Cuba, China accused Washington of inventing allegations to justify sanctions and the blockade.
The bottom line
The article’s core claim is not that Trump has already targeted Nicaragua, but that he likely could if China moves more aggressively there. Zhang’s view is that Washington is likely to go after other regional countries where China wants to build infrastructure, including Nicaragua, Chile and Peru. The piece frames Nicaragua as a possible future test of how far China is willing to push infrastructure and influence projects in Latin America under mounting US pressure.
Key points
- A scholar says Nicaragua could become the next China-US economic battleground in Latin America.
- The catalyst would be a renewed Chinese push to back a canal project across Nicaragua.
- The article says China has intensified efforts to find alternatives to the Panama Canal.
- SCMP links the issue to recent US pressure in Panama, Cuba and Venezuela.
- The piece says Washington is likely to target other countries where China seeks infrastructure deals.
If Beijing does move forward in Nicaragua, it could secure a new route and reduce reliance on the Panama Canal. The article suggests that would give China another way to protect its shipping and infrastructure interests in the region.
A revived canal push could draw stronger US pressure and make Nicaragua another battleground in the China-US rivalry. The article also suggests Washington is likely to target other countries where China is trying to build infrastructure, which could slow or disrupt the project.
