Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it impedes US-Iran Strait of Hormuz talks
Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of US-Iran Strait of Hormuz talks as a June memorandum expired and Iran-Oman navigation talks advanced.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
The US president issued the threat in a Fox News interview as a June US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired. Iran and Oman say they are close to a separate navigation deal, but Tehran insists the Strait 'will remain Iranian.'
Imagine a narrow waterway where huge oil tankers pass through every day, carrying fuel for many countries. Two countries are fighting over who controls it, and a powerful leader is now threatening to bomb a third country that was helping them talk. If the fighting gets worse, oil could become more expensive for everyone.
Analysis
Esmaeil Baghaei
The article's most concrete diplomatic signal comes from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who confirmed at a Monday press conference that Iran-Oman talks are continuing and that an "understanding" had been reached on a "navigation route map" in the Strait of Hormuz. His framing was notably victim-coded, characterizing insecurity in the waterway as having been "imposed on us, the region, and the entire world." That posture is designed to recast Iran as a status-quo power rather than the actor that closed the Strait following the outbreak of the Iran war in late February.
Baghaei also sketched the technical architecture of a potential Oman-Iran deal, describing "a mechanism that both safeguards the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the two coastal states (Iran and Oman) and ensures the safe passage of commercial vessels through this waterway." This co-equal framing sits awkwardly with Trump's claim of US "total control" and underlines why the Omani track irritates Washington: any bilateral settlement that excludes the United States would dilute American leverage over roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade.
The June memorandum of understanding
The expired June MOU between the US and Iran was the scaffolding of any broader deal. It required Iran to reopen the waterway and reaffirm that it "shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons," while Washington committed to lifting its naval blockade and dropping sanctions. The 60-day window has now lapsed without a final agreement, leaving both sides playing from weaker positions. Iran's Strait closure is its leverage; Trump's bomb threat is his.
With the formal framework dead, the diplomatic track has effectively reset, which is precisely why Oman's mediating role has become both more critical and more exposed to US coercion. The timing of Trump's Fox News remarks, landing on the same day Baghaei touted progress with Muscat, is unlikely to be coincidental: the message is that any deal Washington is not party to carries a military cost.
Kazem Gharibabadi
The sharpest Iranian response came from Deputy Foreign Minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi, who declared on X that "the Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian." He added that "as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade." Where Baghaei was constructive, Gharibabadi was confrontational, suggesting either internal divisions inside Iran's negotiating team or a deliberate two-track strategy of engagement and pressure.
Gharibabadi's maximalist language also serves a legal-purpose: by framing the Strait as Iranian territory, Tehran pre-emptively delegitimizes any unilateral US declaration of sovereignty, including Trump's quip that he would soon call the waterway "a territory of the United States." For European observers, the Baghaei-Gharibabadi split is the key tell: technical progress is real, but Iranian hardliners still hold the rhetorical high ground, which means any reopening remains contingent on domestic politics in Tehran.
Key points
- Trump said in a Fox News interview that the US would 'bomb the s--- out of' Oman if it 'gets in the way' of US-Iran Strait of Hormuz talks
- The threat came on the same day the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired after its 60-day window
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said an 'understanding' had been reached with Oman on a 'navigation route map' in the Strait
- Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected Trump's territorial claim, saying the Strait 'has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian'
- The Strait of Hormuz typically carries around a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and was effectively closed after the Iran war began in late February
If the US-Iran track and the parallel Iran-Oman track converge, a reopened Strait of Hormuz would ease seaborne oil supply and pull crude prices off their war premium. The reported understanding on a 'navigation route map' suggests the technical groundwork for a deal is closer than the rhetoric implies, and renewed diplomacy after the MOU lapse could still produce a settlement within weeks.
Trump's explicit threat to bomb a mediating state raises the risk that Oman withdraws from the talks, collapsing the only visible negotiating channel just as the June MOU expires. A prolonged Strait closure would tighten global oil supply, lift crude and gasoline prices for European consumers, and risk a wider regional war drawing in US and Iranian forces.
Market signals
- OIL Trump's threat to bomb a mediating state and the expired US-Iran MOU raise the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, which the article notes carries about a quarter of global seaborne oil.
- XAU Explicit US threats against Oman and the collapse of the June US-Iran memorandum strengthen safe-haven demand for gold as Middle East escalation risk rises.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
