US Withdrawal From Region Key to Hormuz Strait Reopening
An Iranian analyst argues the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen only after U.S. forces leave the region.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
In an op-ed, Mohsen Pakaein says the Strait of Hormuz stayed open to non-belligerent traffic before the war and that U.S. military action made the waterway unsafe. He argues normal shipping should resume only after U.S. forces withdraw.
The article says the Strait of Hormuz is like a busy doorway for ships. The writer argues the doorway will stay closed until U.S. soldiers leave the area, because he says they are the ones making it unsafe.
Analysis
Core argument
Mohsen Pakaein argues that the Strait of Hormuz was not the problem before the 2026 war; in his view, it remained open and ships from non-belligerent countries continued passing safely under the management of the IRGC Navy. He says roughly 30 to 40 oil and commercial vessels moved through the waterway every day during that period.
Blame for the blockage
The article says the Strait became insecure after what it calls a new U.S. invasion of Iran, triggered by the downing of an Apache helicopter. Pakaein questions why the helicopter was flying in Iranian airspace at all and says that act violated Iran's territorial sovereignty under international law. He also notes that CENTCOM has not yet presented evidence for Iran's role in the helicopter incident and says its investigation is still ongoing.
Political reading
The op-ed argues that comments attributed to U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegsett show the attacks were meant to improve Washington's diplomatic position and secure U.S. interests, not simply respond to the helicopter incident. On that reading, the author says the U.S. is trying to shift public attention away from its own role in destabilizing the strait.
What the author wants
Pakaein's conclusion is blunt: if the U.S. wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened, it should withdraw its forces from the region. He says Iran should keep the waterway blocked as long as the U.S. remains the source of insecurity, and that any return to normal traffic should come only after American military pressure ends. The piece presents that stance as a deterrent response in support of Iranian national interests.
Key points
- The op-ed says the Strait of Hormuz was open before the 2026 war and handled normal shipping safely.
- It blames U.S. military action for making the strait insecure and blocking traffic.
- The author argues the helicopter incident violated Iranian airspace and lacked proper justification.
- The piece says reopening the strait depends on the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.
If the situation unfolded the way the author wants, U.S. forces would leave the region and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume normally. That would restore a vital route for oil and trade and reduce immediate pressure on regional commerce.
If the standoff continues, the strait could remain blocked and keep raising risks for energy shipping and regional stability. The article also suggests Iran may keep using the closure as leverage, which could prolong confrontation with Washington.
