World Cup Could Bring Billions in Volume to Prediction Markets in 'Watershed Moment': Bernstein
Bernstein says the 2026 World Cup could drive up to $10 billion in betting and prediction-market volume and accelerate the sector's growth.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Bernstein says the expanded 2026 World Cup could turn a traditionally slow betting period into a major catalyst for prediction markets and sports betting. The firm says Robinhood and Coinbase are already using the tournament to push their prediction-market products.
Bernstein thinks the World Cup will be like a giant magnet for people who like guessing game results with real money. More matches mean more chances to bet, like having a much bigger game board than usual.
Analysis
Bernstein’s thesis
Bernstein says the 2026 FIFA World Cup could become a major demand event for online sports betting and prediction markets. With 104 matches in the expanded 48-team format, the firm estimates more than $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across betting and prediction platforms.
Why the tournament matters
The analysts call the event a “potential watershed moment” for prediction markets. Their view is that the World Cup can help speed up adoption for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, while also broadening customer acquisition beyond the early users who already trade these markets.
Bernstein also argues that prediction markets should be seen as a new way to monetize sports engagement, not as a direct replacement for sportsbooks. The firm said the category could become a “trillion-dollar volume market by 2030,” though that is clearly an analyst projection rather than a settled outcome.
Which companies are moving
Robinhood is using the tournament to launch Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange, according to the article. Coinbase is also offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership. The piece says Coinbase crossed $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue within two months of launching the product in early 2026.
The article frames the World Cup as a test of how far prediction markets can scale when a globally watched sports event creates heavy trading interest across many matches at once. Bernstein’s core point is that the expanded tournament gives the sector a rare chance to prove demand at scale.
Key points
- Bernstein says the 2026 World Cup could generate up to $10 billion in consumer betting and prediction-market volume.
- The firm says the expanded 48-team format creates 104 matches and roughly 60% more bettable inventory than past tournaments.
- Bernstein calls the event a potential watershed moment for prediction markets and online sports betting.
- Robinhood is using the tournament to launch its CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange, Rothera.
- Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership, according to the article.
If Bernstein is right, the World Cup could give prediction markets a huge burst of new users and trading volume. That could help companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, Kalshi, and Polymarket turn a one-time sports event into lasting business growth.
The forecast depends on World Cup interest turning into real trading activity, which may not scale as much as Bernstein expects. If users do not stick around after the tournament, the surge could prove temporary rather than a durable expansion of the market.
