XRP market shows signs of capitulation as holders sell at loss
Glassnode data suggests XRP holders are realizing more losses than profits, a pattern often tied to capitulation. XRP still trades far below its July peak.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
XRP’s onchain profit-to-loss ratio has dropped sharply, showing that more holders are selling underwater than taking gains. CoinDesk says that kind of behavior often appears near exhaustion points in a downtrend, though it does not guarantee the exact bottom.
XRP is like a game where many players are now selling their tickets for less than they paid. That usually means the crowd is tired and scared, and the fall may be getting old, even if the final low has not arrived yet.
Analysis
Onchain stress is rising
CoinDesk, citing Glassnode data, says XRP holders are increasingly selling at a loss. The article points to XRP’s 90-day moving average realized profit-to-loss ratio falling to 0.38, which means investors are realizing far more losses than gains.
That is a sharp reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio reportedly reached 50. In other words, profit-taking once dominated the market by a wide margin, but the balance has now swung hard the other way.
What the market signal means
The article describes a ratio below 1 as a sign of capitulation. That term refers to a phase in which exhausted holders give up after prolonged losses and sell anyway, often out of fear or pressure.
CoinDesk notes that capitulation does not always mark the exact low, but it often shows up near the end of a downtrend. The piece suggests that XRP’s bear market may be in its later stages, though that is framed as an interpretation of the data rather than a certainty.
Price context
At the time of publication, XRP was trading around $1.11, down nearly 40% for the year and well below its July peak above $3.60. That price backdrop supports the article’s case that the token has been under heavy pressure and that many recent onchain transactions involve coins bought at higher prices.
The core takeaway is simple: the market is showing stress, and that stress may be what capitulation looks like for XRP right now.
Key points
- Glassnode data shows XRP’s 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to 0.38.
- That means XRP holders are realizing more losses than profits right now.
- The ratio is a sharp reversal from 2025, when profit-takers reportedly outnumbered loss-sellers by 50 to 1.
- XRP is trading around $1.11, nearly 40% lower for the year and far below its July peak above $3.60.
- CoinDesk says capitulation often appears near exhaustion points in a downtrend, though it does not mark the exact bottom.
If the capitulation signal is accurate, the worst of the sell-off may be close to finished. As exhausted holders exit, selling pressure could fade and XRP could begin to stabilize.
Capitulation is not the same as a guaranteed bottom, so XRP could keep falling if fear stays high. The token is still down sharply from its July peak, which leaves room for more downside if buyers do not step in.
