A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards

A Quantum Roadmap Could Be Bitcoin's Biggest Bull Catalyst Yet

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that a Bitcoin development roadmap addressing quantum computing risks could see the price surge by 'double digits' very quickly. He estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below its fair value and that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount.

The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate within the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin's core ethos. Others claim quantum computers are many years away, and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.

Edwards says a clear roadmap could push the price up 'very quickly', and that the quantum issue is 'somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential' because it is currently on the back burner. He adds that the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) to date are 'not really' a genuine solution.

Edwards is no stranger to making high-conviction calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The firm uses a combination of quantitative models, AI, and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy across crypto markets.

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A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin developers fail to make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is due to complete its post-quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shine a spotlight on Bitcoin's own preparations.

Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication. Edwards estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount.

"That means it's more than priced in," Edwards said. Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication, roughly 49% below its October all-time highs of $126,100.

Edwards clarifies that Bitcoin's current price reflects the quantum risk based on the information available today, rather than any unknown future developments that could accelerate the threat and tank the price further. His estimate is based on the timelines outlined by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when 'Q Day' could arrive, the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to reverse engineer private keys from public keys.

"That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years," Edwards says. Edwards says he also factors in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.

"If we're gonna get into maths, it's pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it's based on that, and based on the fact that there's currently no solution for Bitcoin." "That risk again falls significantly if there's a solution or if there's a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company," he said.

"It's priced in today, but it's not to say that it can't get worse or better. It's just I think it's skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here," Edwards says.