How does seasonal weather affect construction employment?
The FRED Blog discusses how seasonal weather affects construction employment, using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The article examines the patterns of construction employment in two states, Kentucky and Minnesota, and…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
The article explores how seasonal weather affects construction employment in the US, using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It examines the patterns of construction employment in two states, Kentucky and Minnesota, and how they differ due to weather conditions.
Imagine you're a construction worker in a state with really cold winters. You might not be able to work as much during the winter months because it's too cold. But in a state with milder winters, you can work more during the winter months. This is why construction employment might be different in states with different weather patterns.
Analysis
A Tale of Two States: Kentucky and Minnesota
The FRED Blog has discussed why employment in retail and postal services peak around the Christmas holidays. Today, we tap into a 2018 research piece from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to discuss why construction employment may follow different patterns across states.
Our FRED graph above shows monthly employment data reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The solid lines are the numbers (in thousands) of employed workers in construction between May 2016 and June 2026 in two states: Kentucky in purple and Minnesota in blue. The dashed lines are the same employment figures adjusted for the seasonal impact of factors, such as weather, that affect overall economic activity in that industry.
We picked those two states to make our point because they have markedly different weather during the winter and summer months. Note there are far more construction employees in Minnesota than in Kentucky because the Northern state is more populous than the Southern / Midwestern state. Given this size difference, comparing annual employment peaks and throughs between states isn’t easy or straightforward.
To better tell the story behind the numbers, we created a second FRED graph that plots the size of the seasonal changes in employment as a fraction of the seasonally adjusted employment figures between May 2016 and June 2026. This graph shows similar overall patterns for both states: increases through August and declines until February, but a much wider seasonal range in Minnesota than in Kentucky. (That is, much higher highs and much lower lows for Minnesota.) This difference could be related to the ability to work through more of the winter months in the South relative to the North.
If you want to dive further into these patterns, check out the state-level employment data by industry in FRED.
How These Graphs Were Created
Search FRED for “All Employees: Construction in Minnesota” and find the seasonally adjusted series (MNCONS). Click “Edit Graph” and navigate to the “Add Line” tab. Search for “All Employees: Construction in Minnesota” and find the non-seasonally adjusted series (MNCONSN) and click “Add Data Series.” Repeat with the seasonally adjusted (KYCONS) and not seasonally adjusted (KYCONSN) series for “All Employees: Construction in Kentucky” to complete the graph.
Suggested by Alison Booth and Diego Mendez-Carbajo .
Key points
- Seasonal weather affects construction employment in different ways across states.
- States with milder winters tend to have higher construction employment rates.
- Construction employment in states with cold winters may be lower due to the inability to work during the winter months.
- The construction industry may need to adapt to changing weather patterns to increase productivity and efficiency.
If the construction industry can adapt to the changing weather patterns, it may lead to increased productivity and efficiency, resulting in higher employment rates and economic growth.
However, if the construction industry is unable to adapt to the changing weather patterns, it may lead to decreased productivity and efficiency, resulting in lower employment rates and economic decline.
