Iowa Senate race set between Democrat Josh Turek, Republican Ashley Hinson after projected primary wins
Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek are projected to win Iowa’s Senate primaries, setting up a November race for Joni Ernst’s seat.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
The Iowa Senate race is now Hinson vs. Turek, with Republicans largely unified behind the Trump-backed congresswoman and Democrats betting Turek’s crossover appeal can make a red-state contest competitive.
Iowa is picking who will try to take a big Senate seat. Republicans chose Ashley Hinson, and Democrats chose Josh Turek, so now they will face off like two teams in a final game for one prize.
Analysis
The matchup
CBS News projects that Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek will advance from Tuesday’s primaries and face each other in November for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat. The seat is open because GOP Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek reelection.
What each side is betting on
Hinson, who has represented Iowa in the House since 2021, entered the primary with strong Republican backing and an endorsement from President Trump. That made her the party’s de facto nominee before votes were even counted, and she was projected to defeat former state Sen. Jim Carlin.
Turek, a state representative and former Paralympian in wheelchair basketball, ran as the candidate most likely to appeal beyond the Democratic base. He emphasized working across the aisle and pointed to his record representing a very conservative Iowa district in the state legislature. His coalition included moderate voices such as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and more progressive lawmakers like Rep. Ro Khanna.
The Democratic divide
The Democratic primary highlighted an ongoing split over the party’s direction. State Sen. Zach Wahls, backed by progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and several unions, argued for a more anti-establishment message and criticized Senate Democratic leadership. Wahls also attacked Turek’s support from national Democratic groups, while Turek leaned into electability and economic concerns.
The general-election picture
On paper, Democrats face a steep climb: Iowa has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Still, Democrats are increasingly hopeful because of frustration over cost of living and the possibility that Hinson could be tied to unpopular Trump policies, including tariffs. They also point to strong statewide Democratic support for Auditor Rob Sand’s governor bid as a possible boost.
Outside groups are moving early. The Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $29 million in ads, while the Democratic Senate Majority PAC has reserved $13.4 million. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as likely Republican, though it says the contest could become more competitive with Turek as the nominee.
Key points
- CBS News projects Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek won their primaries and will meet in the general election.
- Hinson entered the race with Trump’s endorsement and broad Republican backing.
- Turek ran as a centrist-leaning Democrat focused on electability and the economy.
- The Democratic primary exposed a split between moderates and progressives, with Zach Wahls taking a more anti-establishment line.
- Both parties are investing heavily in advertising, but the race is still rated likely Republican.
If Turek’s crossover appeal holds, Democrats could make Iowa’s Senate race more competitive than expected. Heavy outside spending and voter frustration over the cost of living could give the race more room to move in November.
The race still starts with a Republican advantage: Iowa has leaned GOP for years, and Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. If Hinson keeps Republicans unified and Democrats fail to broaden Turek’s support, the seat could stay safely in GOP hands.
