Libya electricity blackout protests expose country’s failing grid
Protests erupt in Libya's Tripoli as anger grows over power cuts, with demonstrators demanding accountability for alleged corruption and the immediate dissolution of Libya's fractured political institutions.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Libya's chronic power cuts have ignited a new wave of protests and civil disobedience across the capital, Tripoli, and surrounding areas, with demonstrators demanding accountability for alleged corruption and the immediate dissolution of Libya's fractured political institutions.
Imagine living in a country where the sun sets, but the darkness is not just from the lack of light, but also from the lack of electricity. This is the reality for many people in Libya, where power cuts have become a daily occurrence. The country's energy sector is in crisis, and it's not just about the lack of electricity, but also about the lack of trust in the government's ability to provide basic services.
Analysis
A Systemic Collapse in the Making
The crisis in Libya's energy sector is a symptom of a deeper systemic collapse that has been decades in the making. A former official at the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) points to a failure to complete major strategic projects launched before 2011, including the Gulf steam power station near Sirte and the West Tripoli steam power station. Both were designed as four-unit plants with a total planned capacity of 1,400 megawatts each. However, the West Tripoli project remains unfinished, while only two of Sirte's four 350 megawatt units have been connected to the grid, leaving half of it incomplete. This has left Libya more dependent on older facilities, many of which require extensive maintenance.
The delays have left Libya more dependent on older facilities, many of which require extensive maintenance. The former official said that the relative improvement in electricity during 2023 and 2024 largely resulted from gas-fired plants that had been contracted years earlier, rather than a comprehensive overhaul of the sector. Those projects added capacity and reduced deficit, but did not eliminate it or keep pace with the annual increase in demand, which he estimated at up to 600 megawatts.
Energy expert Ahmed al-Meslati said that concentrating solely on generation capacity also overlooked serious weaknesses in Libya's infrastructure and delayed maintenance, meaning that electricity could not always be delivered reliably. He added that Egypt's resumption of electricity exports in July offered only limited relief, supplying about 70 megawatts – a small contribution compared to Libya's overall needs.
A System in Need of Modernisation
Stabilising the grid, according to Roa Nasef, an energy systems engineer who recently returned to Libya after seven years abroad, requires modernising transmission networks and adopting a long-term vision that incorporates renewable energy, rather than just announcing projects that never materialise. The problem is one experienced by the whole country, not just those in Tripoli and western Libya. Areej Badr, a resident of Benghazi, in the country's east, told Al Jazeera that the situation is 'tragic'. Badr noted that owning a generator is now the only way to have a reliable way of maintaining power throughout the day. She explained that power cuts disrupt water supplies and spoil food, exponentially exacerbating the suffering of the sick and elderly.
International Pressure for Reforms
Massad Boulos, the United States adviser for African affairs, recently held discussions with GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, emphasising the urgent need for Libyan unification and security cooperation to achieve long-term stability and prevent further state fragmentation. Libya has been fragmented since 2014, when a war pitted forces largely based in the west of the North African country against others largely based in the east. That division has continued despite a 2020 ceasefire, with the internationally recognised GNU operating out of Tripoli, and a rival administration loyal to renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar in the east.
Key points
- Protests erupt in Libya's Tripoli as anger grows over power cuts
- Demonstrators demand accountability for alleged corruption and the immediate dissolution of Libya's fractured political institutions
- Energy experts point to a systemic collapse that has been decades in the making
- Modernising transmission networks and adopting a long-term vision that incorporates renewable energy is necessary to stabilise the grid
- International actors are pressing for political cohesion and the urgent need for Libyan unification and security cooperation
If the GNU and international actors can work together to implement reforms and modernise the energy sector, Libya could see a significant improvement in its energy situation. This could lead to increased stability and security, and a better quality of life for its citizens.
However, the situation in Libya's energy sector is complex and deeply entrenched. Without a comprehensive overhaul of the sector, including the modernisation of transmission networks and the adoption of renewable energy, the crisis is likely to continue. This could lead to further instability and security risks, and a worsening of the humanitarian situation.
