'Like being in prison': the ship crews stuck in Gulf since February
Up to 20,000 seafarers remain trapped in the Gulf as the US-Iran war enters its sixth month, with 17 crew members killed since February and repeated ceasefire deals collapsing shortly after announcement.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
The Guardian reports that Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, stranding mostly Indian and Filipino crews on tankers and bulk carriers since February. With 17 seafarers killed and two prior ceasefire deals broken, the human and supply-chain toll is escalating.
Imagine 20,000 sailors from countries like India and the Philippines who got on ships in February expecting a normal trip, but a war between the US and Iran started and they have been stuck at sea ever since — like being grounded in your school cafeteria with no way home. Some ships have been hit and 17 sailors have died, so every day they wait, they hope for a rescue.
Analysis
The Minoan Pioneer and the kinetic attacks
The Minoan Pioneer bulk carrier, a Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged ship, transmitted a distress signal late on Monday night from a position about 20 nautical miles north of Oman's coast. An unknown projectile struck the vessel, blacking out the engine room and igniting a fire in the accommodation block. By Tuesday morning the crew had evacuated, but the third engineer could not be located. Maritime intelligence firm Windward noted that "prior kinetic attacks at this exact location have been Iranian in origin, though Iran denies involvement." Two other vessels — a large and a medium oil tanker — reported near-misses in the same 24-hour window, underscoring that the danger is not isolated.
6,000 seafarers on 500 vessels
According to the UN's International Maritime Organization, 6,000 seafarers on 500 vessels of all types remain trapped in the Gulf. Most are Indian and Filipino merchant mariners who entered the waterway as part of routine voyages back in February; many have not stepped off their ships in more than five months. The IMO's secretary-general, Arsenio Dominguez, framed the crews as "innocent people who are trained to do the work" and warned that "the vessels are not prepared to defend themselves against missiles and drones." For India's Maritime Union, the head Savio Ramos compared the experience to being in "prison," describing crews unable to predict when, or even where, their next assignment will end.
84 vessels versus the pre-conflict 700
Lloyd's List analysts counted just 84 ships transiting the strait during the week of 27 July to 2 August — 52 non-Iranian linked vessels (60% exiting, 40% entering) plus 32 Iranian-linked ships. That figure represents slightly more than 10% of the average 700 weekly movements before the conflict, a collapse in traffic that translates directly into supply-chain risk for major oil and gas importers. Some 70 large oil and gas tankers owned by non-sanctioned, mainstream companies have been stranded in the Gulf since February, with another 65 tankers that entered after the memorandum of understanding was announced also stuck. April's ceasefire and the June Washington-Tehran peace deal both collapsed within weeks of being announced, while Oman-mediated talks point toward a framework that would give Tehran control over traffic flow — a structure the wider industry would view as a major deviation from pre-conflict freedom of navigation.
Key points
- Up to 20,000 seafarers, mostly Indian and Filipino, have been trapped in the Gulf since February; 6,000 on 500 vessels remain according to the IMO
- 17 seafarers have died since hostilities began, the majority following Iranian strikes
- Only 84 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the week of 27 July to 2 August, versus a pre-conflict weekly average of 700
- April's ceasefire and the June US-Iran peace deal both collapsed shortly after being announced
- Oman is mediating talks, but Iran's proposed framework would give Tehran control over traffic entering the Gulf
Oman-mediated talks are still active and most vessels continue to receive fresh water, food and supplies via small boats from shore. If a durable ceasefire can hold, the 6,000 stranded seafarers could be evacuated in stages through the channel and shipping traffic could gradually rebuild toward the pre-conflict 700-ship weekly baseline.
The April ceasefire and June peace deal both broke down within weeks, and Iran's proposed framework would give it control over traffic entering the Gulf — a condition the broader industry is unlikely to accept. With 17 seafarers already dead, kinetic attacks continuing, and only 10% of normal vessel movements passing through, the risk is that the blockade hardens into a structural disruption to oil and LNG flows rather than a temporary shock.
Market signals
- OIL Strait of Hormuz transit volume has collapsed to roughly 10% of pre-conflict levels and 17 seafarers have died in kinetic attacks, signaling persistent supply-route risk for seaborne crude.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
