Playing the waiting game in California: From the Politics Desk
California's primary may show an early picture fast, then leave key races unresolved for days as millions of ballots are still counted.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Steve Kornacki says California often produces a quick first wave of results, followed by a long delay as mail ballots and later-counted votes keep rolling in. That could leave the governor's race, Los Angeles mayor's race, and some House contests unsettled well past election night.
California counts votes like opening a giant pile of envelopes. Some answers show up right away, but many arrive later, so the winner may not be known until the pile is fully sorted.
Analysis
The basic pattern
Kornacki says California election night usually comes in two stages. First, there is a fast burst of returns right after polls close, when large batches of mail ballots already received and processed are reported. Then the pace slows sharply, because many ballots still need to be counted.
Why California is so slow
The article points to the state’s heavy use of mail voting, rules that allow ballots to arrive up to a week after Election Day, and slow processing in many large counties. In 2024, Orange County reported more than 700,000 votes just minutes after polls closed, and about half of California's vote was in by 12:30 a.m. Eastern. After that, results moved much more slowly, reaching about 95% only on Nov. 18.
That lag did not change the presidential outcome, but it did matter elsewhere. It delayed the national popular vote tally and left several competitive House races unsettled for days or weeks.
What to watch tonight
The same dynamic could play out in this primary. Kornacki says the governor's race could be hard to call because Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are closely grouped in the polls, with other candidates also in the mix. The Los Angeles mayoral race is also tightly bunched, with Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close together, and several crowded congressional primaries could also remain open for a while.
The practical takeaway is simple: a lack of clarity tonight would not necessarily mean a problem. It may just mean California is doing what it often does, which is counting slowly and finishing late.
Key points
- California often reports a large first wave of votes, then slows sharply as more ballots are counted.
- The state's mail voting rules and processing pace help explain why results can take days or weeks to finish.
- The governor's race is close enough that tonight's winner may not be obvious right away.
- The Los Angeles mayor's race and some congressional primaries could also remain unresolved for a while.
If the early returns line up with the later ballots, the state will eventually produce clear winners without changing the basic outcome. The slower count also means more mailed ballots have time to be included, which can make the final tally more complete.
The downside is that important races could stay unsettled for days or even weeks, which leaves voters and campaigns waiting. In close contests, the early picture may look decisive even though the final result is still far from settled.
