Trump has singled out us Canadians for special treatment in his tariff war – there is no choice but to get nasty

A $60B Vote of Confidence

The recent tariffs imposed by the US on Canada have sent shockwaves through the country's economy and politics. The move has been seen as a shock for Canada's political class, which has long taken a friendly America as a law of nature. The tariffs have been imposed on a selection of Canadian products, including items previously protected by the trade agreement. The US called it retaliation for Canadian trade practices. It's true that the US announced tariffs against dozens more countries just days later, but there has been something odd about the lopsided attention paid to Canada, which most US presidents tend to politely ignore.

Most of the tariffs Trump recently announced were in the range of about 10%, but Canada was hit by 50% tariffs (albeit on a narrower range of exports). The president, it seems, wanted to send a message to Canada, but without hurting US consumers too much. The tariffs also land differently here, given Trump's stated desire to annex Canada as a 51st state. The president has ruled out using military force to accomplish that, saying instead that he would use 'economic force'. Tariffs would meet that definition.

There may have been little sign that the talk of annexation is anything more than typical Trumpian bluster, but even the suggestion, along with the tariffs, has been a shock for a Canadian political class that has long taken a friendly America as a law of nature – and has let Canada grow shockingly dependent on the US for defence and trade. An unfriendly, potentially even hostile US is a staggeringly consequential change. It's hard to overestimate how huge a shock this has been. And it's having a massive effect on our domestic politics, thus far to the benefit of the Liberal party and the prime minister, Mark Carney.

Why Cursor?

The return of Trump to the White House upset an election last year that the Liberals had been set to lose decisively. Canada's Conservatives were cruising to an easy win with a campaign focused on public safety and the cost of living, but once Trump began musing about annexation, the Liberals dumped Justin Trudeau, replaced him with Carney, wrapped themselves in the flag, and won decisively. Carney remains popular, largely because Canadians see him as the right choice to deal with Trump.

The Road Ahead

US pressure is complicating Canada's increasingly fraught internal politics in other ways. Canada does not have a true national economy, but a series of regional ones. Ontario and Quebec, the most populous provinces, are heavily dependent on manufacturing. In western Canada, particularly the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, the economies depend more on exporting natural resources, including oil. Most of this goes to the US, as Canada lacks the transportation infrastructure to readily export it elsewhere (there's that dependency). The response has therefore been more fragmented than unified. Ontario has pursued a strategy of confrontation; the western provinces have preferred to appeal to shared interests with the US. These are obvious fissures that the US could choose to exploit.