How the El Niño Cycle Will Shape This Summer
El Niño is expected to arrive this year and could intensify extreme weather and global heat. In Central Europe, the direct effects are likely limited, though cooler, wetter conditions are possible.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
The WMO says El Niño is approaching and may affect weather through the end of the year, with the strongest impacts often peaking around the turn of the year. In Europe, the signal is likely weaker, but the phenomenon could still influence prices, harvests, and climate records.
El Niño is like a big heat and water switch in the Pacific Ocean. When it turns on, some places get flooded and others get very dry, like a bath tub spilling over in one corner while another corner dries out.
Analysis
What the article says
The WMO expects El Niño to arrive this year, and the article says previous episodes show what that can mean: stronger droughts, floods, and a chance that the global average temperature could rise above the 2024 record. The strongest weather impacts usually peak around the turn of the year, while the temperature effect is felt more clearly in the following year, which the piece says would be 2027 in this case.
How certain is it?
The article is careful not to overstate certainty. It says El Niño is highly likely to influence weather until the end of the year, but the strength is still hard to predict. Media and some researchers are discussing a possible "super El Niño," yet Mojib Latif of the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel is quoted as saying the odds are "50 to 50."
What it could mean for Europe
For Central Europe, the direct effect is described as relatively small. Daniela Domeisen of ETH Zurich says Europe is far from the tropical Pacific, and the signal gets disturbed by many other atmospheric and oceanic influences on the way. If there is any effect, she says, it would more likely mean cooler and wetter weather than usual.
Broader consequences
The article emphasizes that El Niño can amplify climate change impacts because warmer Pacific waters and atmosphere can add energy and moisture to extreme events such as heat waves and heavy rain. It can also have indirect effects on prices: Armin Bunde points to poor harvests in the Pacific region that could raise prices for sugar, coffee, and cocoa. The WMO urges governments and aid groups to prepare for risks to farming, health care, energy, water, and food security, and to use seasonal forecasts and early warnings to limit damage.
Key points
- The WMO expects El Niño to arrive this year and says it could affect weather until the end of the year.
- The biggest weather impacts usually peak around the turn of the year; temperature effects are felt more strongly in the following year.
- Experts disagree on whether this will become a "super El Niño," and one scientist quoted puts the odds at 50-50.
- For Central Europe, the direct impact is likely limited, though cooler and wetter weather is possible.
- The WMO urges preparation for risks to agriculture, health care, energy, water, and food security.
If the forecasted El Niño is moderate, Central Europe may see only limited direct disruption. Better seasonal forecasts and early warnings could still help governments and aid groups prepare for stress on food, water, health, and energy systems.
If El Niño turns out unusually strong, it could add heat and moisture to already extreme weather, raising the risk of floods, droughts, and heat waves in vulnerable regions. The article also warns that poor harvests in some areas could push up prices for products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa.
