How the end of the nuclear file could reshape Iran, and the region
Iran's potential shift from a nuclear-based defensive doctrine to one centered on controlling the Strait of Hormuz could have significant domestic and regional implications, prompting a reevaluation of its strategic priorities.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
This article explores the evolving strategic thinking within Iran following US attacks on its nuclear facilities. It suggests a move away from nuclear deterrence towards leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz as a more potent 'weapon of mass disruption' that could reshape Iran's internal politics and regional standing.
Imagine a country called Iran that used to spend a lot of time and money trying to build a special kind of power, like having a super-secret strong shield that could scare away attackers. But this shield made them lose friends and money, and even caused problems inside their own country.
Now, after some big arguments and even some attacks, they are thinking about a new way to be safe. Instead of the super-secret shield, they are looking at a very important waterway, like a busy highway for ships. If they can control this highway, they can make it hard for other countries to get their goods, especially oil, across the world.
So, instead of a shield that just sits there, they are thinking of a way to control the flow of traffic on a global road. This new idea might change how their leaders talk to each other and how they deal with other countries, making them powerful in a different way.
Analysis
Iran's recent actions, including a threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent US naval blockade, have highlighted a potential shift in its defense strategy. Once dismissed as mere rhetoric, control of the strait is now being considered a powerful tool, potentially more impactful than nuclear weapons previously pursued.
Evolution of Iranian Doctrine
Historically, Iran invested heavily in its nuclear program, enduring billions in costs from R&D and protection, alongside economic isolation and sanctions. This program also fueled internal political divisions between moderates and hardliners, with presidential elections often serving as referendums on its management. Critics of the costly nuclear project and its economic impact were systematically purged, leading to a concentration of power among hardliners.
Hormuz as a New Deterrent
Following the June 2025 US attack on Iran’s main nuclear fuel production facilities and subsequent assaults on its leadership and infrastructure, a significant internal debate has emerged within Iran. The core question is whether controlling the Strait of Hormuz can effectively replace nuclear latency as the nation's primary deterrent. Iran’s reported offer to suspend enrichment for several years in talks with Pakistan suggests a willingness among some factions to reconsider enrichment as an 'untouchable strategic core' in favor of maritime leverage.
Shifting Perspectives
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, for instance, has not publicly mentioned the nuclear program, instead emphasizing Iran’s right to govern the Strait of Hormuz. Even extreme right-wing populists, like Saeed Jalili, and more pragmatist conservatives, such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s allies, are now openly questioning the deterrent value of nuclear threshold status. They argue that the Strait of Hormuz, unlike vulnerable nuclear facilities, 'can neither be bombed, nor oxidised, nor filled with cement,' as noted by Jalil Mohebbi, a senior adviser to Ghalibaf.
Implications for Iran and the Region
The nuclear-threshold status has not provided deterrence and may have even weakened Iran’s conventional defensive assets, according to analyst Mostafa Najafi. Should the 'Hormuz camp' solidify its influence, it could significantly alter Iran's internal politics by undermining the hardliners' justification for purging reformers based on national security concerns, thereby opening up more political space.
Key points
- Iran is considering a strategic shift from a nuclear-based defensive doctrine to controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Strait of Hormuz is seen as a 'weapon of mass disruption' with significant global economic impact.
- Past focus on the nuclear program led to billions in costs and internal political divisions, with hardliners consolidating power.
- Following recent attacks, a debate is ongoing within Iran regarding the efficacy of nuclear deterrence versus maritime control.
- A shift to controlling the Strait of Hormuz could weaken hardliner justifications for political repression and open up more political space for reformers.
